notproven
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THE DOCKET
THE METHOD
MANIFESTO
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THE DOCKET
/ CASE № 009
In the matter of
The “+164% returns” claim — a class of AI-trading boasts built on backtested numbers
Claim-class
No account named
Filed 09 JUL 2026
NOT PROVEN
“Our AI trading bot returned +164% — one agent topped +252%.”
QUOTED VERBATIM · SOURCE ARCHIVED AS EXHIBIT A
The verdict card · notproven.ai/case/009
The evidence
Claimed
+12% / month, "guaranteed"
Observed
+1.4% / month over the window
Sample
n = 214 trades · 92 days
Benchmark
+2.1% (doing nothing at all)
p-value
0.51 — a coin flip with better marketing
Exhibit A — the source
The method →
The weekly ruling
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one email per verdict. zero shilling, it's the whole point.
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CASE № 008 →