notproven*
THE DOCKET / CASE № 010
In the matter of

The “give an AI agent a wallet and it beats the market” claim — a class of live prediction-market boasts

Claim-classNo account namedFiled 09 JUL 2026
NOT PROVEN
“Give an AI agent a wallet and it beats the market — autonomous LLMs are trading prediction markets and winning.”
QUOTED VERBATIM · SOURCE ARCHIVED AS EXHIBIT A
Verdict card for case № 010: The “give an AI agent a wallet and it beats the market” claim — a class of live prediction-market boasts. Claim: “Give an AI agent a wallet and it beats the market — autonomous LLMs are trading prediction markets and winning.” — verdict Not Proven.
The verdict card · notproven.ai/case/010

The evidence

Claimed+12% / month, "guaranteed"
Observed+1.4% / month over the window
Samplen = 214 trades · 92 days
Benchmark+2.1% (doing nothing at all)
p-value0.51 — a coin flip with better marketing
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